The conflict in Iran has been dominating energy headlines globally, and while Alberta isn’t importing Iranian crude, your energy costs are still feeling the ripple effects.
Here’s the plain-English version of why.
Alberta’s electricity market (AESO) is increasingly influenced by natural gas prices, because gas-fired generation sets the marginal price on the pool more than 60% of the time. When global LNG demand spikes, as it has in response to Middle East supply uncertainty, NGTL natural gas prices in Alberta move with it. That translates directly into higher electricity pool prices, even if you’re on a fixed electricity contract.
For businesses on floating or index-linked gas contracts, the pressure is more direct. NGTL spot prices have seen increased volatility over the past 60 days, and forward curves are pricing in continued uncertainty through Q3.
Closer to home, Calgary and Edmonton are feeling this acutely. Commercial and industrial energy users in both cities are navigating AESO’s South and Edmonton load zones, areas where peak demand pricing has been climbing steadily as population growth and construction activity push consumption higher. If your operations are based in either city, the summer demand curve is not your friend this year.
What this means for you: If your gas or electricity contract is up for renewal in the next 12–18 months, the window to lock in at predictable rates before volatility fully reprices the forward curve is narrowing. It’s worth a conversation sooner rather than later.
